Lab Diamonds & The Evolution of Rarity

The allure of a diamond has always been as much about myth as it is about matter. For centuries, diamonds were valued not just for their brilliance, but for their perceived rarity, permanence, and the mystery of their formation—natural miracles formed deep beneath the earth under incomprehensible pressure and heat. But today, this narrative is being rewritten, not by nature, but by technology.

Creating lab-grown diamonds is a marvel of modern science. It’s a process as elegant as it is industrial—two primary methods dominate the field: Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) and High-Pressure High-Temperature (HPHT). Each begins with carbon, the same elemental base as natural diamonds, and ends in a sparkling stone nearly indistinguishable from one pulled from the earth.

In the CVD method, a sliver of diamond "seed" is placed inside a heated vacuum chamber. The chamber is infused with carbon-rich gases, which break down under heat and deposit carbon atoms onto the seed, growing it layer by layer—like nature in fast-forward. The HPHT method is a little more primal in nature: a bulky chamber the size of a van replicates the immense underground conditions where diamonds are born, crushing carbon with heat exceeding 1,000°C and pressures nearing one million pounds per square inch until it transforms into crystal.

Cleaner Carbon: The Environmental Equation

Lab-grown diamonds are often presented as the greener, cleaner alternative—and on paper, the numbers support that. Growing a single carat in a lab disturbs just 0.0065 square metres of land (roughly the size of a postage stamp), compared to more than 9 square metres for a mined diamond—about the footprint of a small bedroom.

Then there’s the waste. A mined carat creates around 2,700 kilograms of displaced rock and soil—the equivalent weight of a small family car. In contrast, a lab-grown diamond generates less than half a kilo of waste, similar to a bag of sugar. Water use follows the same pattern: just 2 litres for a lab-grown carat, compared to 96 litres for a mined one.

On the surface, it’s a clear win for the lab-grown stone. But the picture gets more complex when we step back.

Since 2022, the price of natural diamonds has dropped sharply. The average cost of a one-carat stone fell from around £5,450 to £4,000 by the end of 2023—a drop of more than 25%. And yet, during this same period, the global diamond market still managed to grow in value, rising from approximately £77 billion in 2022 to over £80 billion in 2023. What that tells us is important: even as individual stones become cheaper, more diamonds are being sold than ever before.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue expanding. Industry forecasts suggest the global diamond market could reach over £110 billion by 2032. Lab-grown diamonds are a big part of that. With prices up to 70% lower than their mined counterparts, they’ve opened up the diamond market to a new generation of buyers—many of whom might not have considered a diamond at all just a few years ago. In fact, lab-grown stones now make up nearly one in five diamonds sold worldwide.

Lab-grown diamonds may offer a smaller environmental footprint per carat, but the overall volume entering the market is rising rapidly. At the same time, although some production facilities are transitioning to renewable energy, many still rely on fossil-fuel-intensive grids—particularly in major manufacturing centres like China and India.

The environmental gains of each individual lab-grown stone are clear, but the surge in global production adds complexity to the picture. It’s a valuable reminder that sustainability isn’t solely about improving how we make things—it’s also about reflecting on how much we choose to produce.

A New Age Of “Perfection”

Argyle Diamond Mine, Western Australia photo by W.Bulach

One of the most striking effects of the rise of lab-grown diamonds is the shift in consumer preferences. Because these stones can be manufactured with near-perfect clarity and colour, they’ve begun to pull attention away from natural diamonds that carry visible inclusions or warmer tones.

Traditionally, buyers working within a budget might have compromised by choosing a natural diamond with lower grades in clarity or colour. But now, for the same price (or often less) they can walk away with a larger, flawless lab-grown diamond. This shift has reshaped expectations. In today's market, perfection is no longer the preserve of the ultra-wealthy; it's becoming the baseline.

Lab-grown diamonds are typically sold to consumers at prices that are 30–40% lower than natural stones of similar specifications. But the difference is even starker at the wholesale level. Jewellers can source lab-grown diamonds at a fraction of the cost of mined equivalents, enabling significantly higher profit margins. In many cases, retailers are maintaining price points that appear “affordable” to consumers while enjoying margins far above what’s possible with natural stones.

This accessibility to pristine diamonds has had a very real impact on the natural diamond market—especially for stones on the lower end of the clarity and colour spectrum. Data shows that demand is weakening for these imperfect natural diamonds, as consumers who once accepted flaws for the sake of affordability are now choosing lab-grown perfection instead.

And yet, this widespread access to "perfection" raises a deeper question about what we truly value. If flawlessness can be mass-produced, where does that leave the imperfect? Are we entering an age where uniqueness (those subtle quirks, the story behind a stone, the marks of nature) become the true markers of luxury?

Perfection may now be common. But perhaps it’s the character, not the clarity, that makes something truly precious.

Cracks in the Crust: Who Pays the Price?

While lab-grown diamonds are transforming the market with cleaner production methods and broader accessibility, their rise carries consequences that extend far beyond jewellery boutiques and glossy marketing campaigns.

In countries like Botswana and Namibia, diamonds are not just a luxury commodity. They are the backbone of national economies. These nations rank among the world’s top producers of natural diamonds, and for them, the gemstone is deeply tied to development and stability. Take Botswana as a case in point. Often praised as a model for resource-driven growth, the country derives more than 70 percent of its export earnings and around 30 percent of its GDP from diamond mining. These revenues have funded roads, hospitals, schools, and public services—transforming the country’s fortunes since independence.

But the landscape is beginning to shift.

As lab-grown diamonds capture a growing share of the market, especially in the commercial and mid-tier segments, the demand for natural stones is beginning to soften. Consumers are increasingly turning to lab-grown alternatives that offer flawless appearance at a fraction of the cost. For producing nations, this trend presents an economic threat. When fewer natural diamonds are purchased—particularly those outside the top-end collector’s category—national budgets start to feel the strain.

This is more than just a market correction. It’s a structural challenge. Mining authorities in Namibia, for example, have voiced growing concern about the impact of synthetic diamonds on their economy and their long-term viability as a global player. Even industry giants like De Beers, historically tied to Botswana’s prosperity, have diversified by introducing their own lab-grown offering through the Lightbox brand, while continuing to promote the value of natural stones.

In this context, lab-grown diamonds represent more than a technological shift. They are reshaping the geopolitical and economic realities of entire nations. For those whose livelihoods and futures are linked to what lies beneath the surface of the Earth, the rise of synthetic stones may feel less like innovation—and more like an earthquake.

The Struggle For Identity

As lab-grown diamonds become more common, the challenge of telling them apart from natural stones has become one of the industry’s biggest concerns. After all, when two diamonds are both chemically and physically identical, how do you protect the value of one over the other?

At a molecular level, natural and lab-grown diamonds are both pure crystallised carbon. They share the same hardness, brilliance, and refractive qualities. But it's their origin stories that differ, and those subtle distinctions leave traces. Natural diamonds form deep within the Earth over billions of years, while lab-grown stones emerge in weeks. These formation processes leave behind microscopic clues, clues that sophisticated tools can detect.

Specialist instruments like DiamondView™ and SYNTHdetect, developed by De Beers, use short-wave ultraviolet light to reveal internal growth patterns and fluorescence behaviours unique to each diamond’s journey. Spectroscopic analysis—techniques like photoluminescence and infrared scanning can also uncover trace elements like nitrogen or silicon, which act like a fingerprint of origin.

But these tools, while incredibly effective, are often limited to high-value stones. For smaller diamonds—the kind you’ll find in pavé settings or mass-market pieces—full-scale verification is less consistent. Reports have surfaced of lab-grown diamonds being sold as natural, either through oversight or, in some cases, deliberate misrepresentation. In one case, a 6-carat lab-grown stone was inscribed with a fake GIA report number, mimicking a natural diamond of the same size and shape. Other incidents involve large batches of synthetic diamonds entering the trade without disclosure, especially among smaller melee stones.

This erosion of certainty is unsettling the natural diamond market. If buyers—even unknowingly—begin to question whether what they’re buying is truly natural, the premium attached to those stones starts to wobble. It introduces doubt, and with it, downward pressure on prices.

So this isn’t just about scientific accuracy—it’s about trust, value, and perception. For natural diamonds, the battle is no longer just geological. It’s about protecting a legacy: a story written deep within the Earth, told through each stone, and now more than ever, in need of defending.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The future of the diamond market is still being written.

Lab-grown diamonds are expected to become even more affordable as production scales up, particularly in countries like China and India, which now account for over 70 percent of the global supply. This shift is making diamonds more accessible, but also more abundant. Prices are already falling, and the trend shows no sign of slowing.

For natural diamonds, the picture is more nuanced. Prices are softening, especially for stones of lower quality and smaller size. These are the most susceptible to substitution by synthetic alternatives. Yet the ultra-rare, high-quality diamonds with provenance and scale may still hold their ground. Their value lies not just in their appearance, but in their rarity, their history, and the emotional weight they carry.

Still, there is something that lab-grown diamonds cannot quite replicate. They may be chemically identical, and they may shine just as brightly. But a diamond created in a matter of weeks inside a chamber in a factory lacks the emotional gravity of one that formed beneath the Earth over billions of years. A natural diamond is not just a piece of carbon. It is a fragment of deep time, crystallised under unimaginable pressure, shaped by nature, and discovered by human hands. To wear one is to carry a story that began long before we did.

Perhaps I have fallen for the romance, the same romance crafted by De Beers and the generations of marketing that followed. But for me, the value of a diamond was never just in its sparkle. It was in what it represented. Permanence. Depth. A love marked not by surface perfection, but by patience and endurance. A natural diamond speaks to that in a way no machine ever could.

Lab-grown diamonds may be flawless. But so is a fine art print. And while a print can be beautiful, we pay more for the original because it holds something unique—the artist's hand, the context, the unrepeatable spark of creation. In the world of diamonds, Mother Nature is the artist. For many, that provenance still matters.

Where we go from here may involve two parallel markets. One prioritises accessibility, technological precision, and affordability. The other celebrates rarity, origin, and meaning. Both have their place. But they are not the same. And perhaps, they shouldn’t try to be.

The Perfect Spark